Imperium Capital Publication

Weekly Digest – 29 July 2019

  • US large-cap benchmarks again reached new highs
  • The International Monetary Fund further reduced its global growth outlook
  • Brent crude rallied 1.6%, ending the week at $63.5 per barrel
  • Gold prices fell 0.5% to $1418.7 an ounce

Viewpoint – July 2019

The trade war-inspired sell-off in equity markets in May rapidly reversed in June, while yields on bonds continued the decline that started in late 2018, leaving nearly all asset classes in positive territory for the month. The US again led the way, returning 7.0% in June, taking the MSCI World index up 6.6%, while emerging markets participated fully in the rise, returning 6.2%. The notable laggard was Japan, up only 2.8%, while the UK was held back by Brexit worries, returning 4.0%. Bond markets also rallied strongly with most gaining 1-2% or in the case of emerging market bonds 4.1%.

Weekly Digest – 15 July 2019

  • US large-cap benchmarks reached new highs
  • The European Commission lowers growth and inflation forecasts for next year
  • Brent crude rallied 3.9%, ending the week at $66.7 per barrel
  • Gold prices rose 0.9% to $1411 an ounce

Weekly Digest – 01 July 2019

  • US and China agreed to restart trade talks during the G20 summit
  • The current US economic expansion is now the longest on record
  • Brent crude gained 2.1%, ending the week at $66.6 per barrel
  • Gold prices rose 1.1%, ending the week at $1409.6 per ounce

Weekly Digest – 24 June 2019

  • Dovish tilt by global major central banks led by the US Federal Reserve
  • Tensions rose between the US and Iran, resulting in a rally in global oil prices
  • Brent Crude rallied 5.1%, ending the week at $65.2 per barrel
  • Gold prices gained 3.5%, ending the week at $1394.3 per ounce

Viewpoint – June 2019

To say we are living through extraordinary times is beyond dispute. The current economic expansion in the US is soon set to become the longest in history, employment growth in the US and elsewhere has been very strong, monetary policy across the developed world remains ultra-loose by any historical standard and yet inflation is still remarkably subdued. Indeed, recent falls in core inflation measures especially in the US have rattled investors and raised fears of weaker growth and tougher conditions for the corporate sector ahead, and in Europe and Japan of prolonged deflation. US inflation as measured by core PCE deflator has fallen to 1.6%, well below the Fed’s target of 2%, which has hardly been breached throughout the post crisis decade.

Weekly Digest – 17 June 2019

  • Global equity markets were relatively flat on the week
  • The US reached an agreement with Mexico to avoid tariffs
  • Brent crude fell 2.0%, ending the week at $62.0 per barrel
  • Gold prices remained relatively flat, up 0.3%, ending the week at $1347.2 per ounce