Imperium Capital Publication

Global Matters Weekly – 14 September 2020

Realpolitik
by Richard Stutley, CFA

Realpolitik is the art of designing policy based on practical rather than ideological considerations: what works, not what we think should work. Pragmatism is an important part of investing and tells us that positioning too aggressively around political events like Brexit and the US election is risky, because both the result and the market outcomes are difficult to predict. Given a low probability of correctly predicting either, we need to see evidence of significant mispricing in order to introduce large positions in our portfolios.


Market Snapshot

  • A mixed week for global equity markets which returned -1.3%
  • Vaccine trials resume after last week’s pause
  • Brent crude fell -6.6% ending the week at $39.8 a barrel
  • Gold rose 0.3% to end the week at $1940.5 an ounce

Global Matters Weekly – 7 September 2020

Yellow metal, green lights
by Andrew Hardy, CFA

Gold has outshone most other investments in 2020, having broken through to new all-time highs in July, surpassing levels last reached nearly 10 years ago. Year to date the bullion price has increased by 27%, trumping all broad equity markets and most other assets – only the tech heavy NASDAQ index has kept pace. Over five years, gold has risen by over 70%. Today’s market and economic conditions go a long way towards justifying these gains though and we remain committed holders within our multi-asset portfolios.


Market Snapshot

  • After their best month since April, US equities fell back last week
  • The CDC in the US has warned health officials to be ready to distribute a vaccine by the 1st November to at-risk individuals
  • Brent crude fell -5.3% ending the week at $42.7 a barrel
  • Gold fell -1.6% to end the week at $1933.9 an ounce