Viewpoint – June 2017

The benign conditions that have prevailed in markets through the past six months continued into May, with most risk assets producing positive returns. Equity markets again produced the best returns, led by the UK, Europe (especially peripheral markets) and Asia, but bond markets also made solid progress, as yields drifted lower and credit benefitted from a favourable corporate backdrop. Perhaps the most notable features, however, were a further slide in the US dollar, which fell 2.2% in May on a trade weighted basis, taking its fall to 6.1% from its early January peak and reversing all of the post election surge; as well as a further drop in the oil price in the face of stubbornly high global inventory levels and evidence of surging oil shale production in the US. Also notable was the continuation of extraordinarily low levels of volatility across markets, with the VIX ‘fear’ index hovering at ten year lows, punctuated only very briefly in May by concerns that the Russia/Trump scandal could lead to a further weakening of the President and his ability to implement some of his reflationary and business friendly policies and even lead to his impeachment.