Viewpoint – August 2016

Fortunately, the Brexit vote proved to be anything but the globally systemic shock that many had predicted. Within weeks most equity markets had recovered all and more of their immediate post-referendum falls as it became clear that the only lasting impact on markets globally was to delay any prospect of monetary tightening into the long distant future.

Lower for longer has become received wisdom as yields on government bonds, which fell sharply after the vote, have stayed at record low levels as investors anticipate further easing by central banks in the UK, Europe and Japan, as well as a deferral of interest rate rises in the US. Equity markets quickly recognised the over amplified Brexit fears and enjoyed a strong month, with the MSCI World index up 4.2% in the month and Global Emerging Markets up 5%, with nearly all markets participating in the rise and some, notably the US, moving to new all-time highs.