- Brent crude rose 6.4% last week to $70.4 a barrel
- Gold rose 2.5% to 1,347.4 an ounce
- Global equity indices see their biggest slump in 5 weeks
- Safe haven assets gain
Imperium Capital Publication
Viewpoint – March 2018
Financial markets had a turbulent and more volatile month in February, with almost every asset class falling while the US Dollar rose on a trade weighted basis. Notably, after a record streak of fifteen consecutive monthly gains, the S&P 500 fell 3.7% in February. After a particularly strong January, global emerging market equities underperformed developed markets, although emerging market equities continue to outperform developed markets year to date. Global bonds suffered with yields generally rising amidst a better than expected jobs report in the US.
US markets fell sharply early in the month, with the S&P 500 falling 6.2% in the first three days of trading. This followed a strong jobs report, with wage growth beating expectations at 2.9%. With the tightness in the labour market yet to feed into wage growth and subsequently headline inflation, investors have been focusing on wage growth figures in anticipation of the trend reversing. The better than expected data indicated this may finally be the case and investors adjusted their inflation expectations and subsequently their forecast for the timing of future US rate hikes. This initially put bond markets under pressure, before concerns spread to equity markets.
Weekly Digest – 19 March 2018
- Brent crude rose 0.8% last week to $65.9 a barrel
- Gold fell by 0.6% to 1313.9 an ounce
- Global equity indices struggle for direction
- US tariffs draw ire from China as Germany seeks to thwart a trade war
Weekly Digest – 12 March 2018
- Global equities rebound, posting strong gains
- President Trump’s chief economic advisor Gary Cohn resigns
- US imposes import tariffs on steel and aluminium
- President Trump primed to meet with Kim Jong-un
Weekly Digest – 5 March 2018
- Brent crude fell 4.4% last week to $64.6 a barrel
- Gold fell by 0.7% to 1320.3
- Global equity indices fall
- Global trade war looms following US metals protection announcement
Weekly Digest – 26 February 2018
- Brent crude was up 3.8% to $65 a barrel
- Gold fell by -1.7% to 1353.7
- Relatively flat week overall in world markets, some bigger gains in Asia
- The threat of further regional conflict in Syria. UN declares 30-day ceasefire
Viewpoint – February 2018
The pattern in market performance during 2017 of strong equities, rising bond yields and a weakening US Dollar continued into January. Notably the S&P 500 produced its fifteenth consecutive monthly gain, with a rise of 5.7%. Global emerging markets continued to perform solidly, returning 8.3%, supported by the strength of the global economy and a weak US Dollar. Global bonds had a more turbulent month, with yields generally rising.
However, as the month progressed there was a distinct change in markets. Indications of continuing global economic growth, particularly in the US following tax reform progress, began to weigh more heavily on bonds with US Treasuries notably affected. 10 year US Treasury yields had already risen from 2.0% in early September 2017 to 2.4% by year-end, but rose quicker during January to end the month at 2.7%, the highest level for nearly four years. Signs of an inflation pickup, especially in the US where wage growth is rising amidst a tight labour market, heightened concerns that bonds were increasingly vulnerable. Towards the end of the month the sell-off in bonds, which spread from US Treasuries through to the UK, Europe, and somewhat to Japan, began to have an impact on equity markets, which retracted some of their earlier gains.
Weekly Digest – 19 February 2018
- Brent crude was up 3.3% % to $65 a barrel
- Gold rose by 3.1% to 1353.7
- Global equity indices extend rebound, treasuries fall
- Brent crude falls 8.4% amidst record US oil production
Weekly Digest – 12 February 2018
- Global equities fall heavily following US sell-off
- Angela Merkel reaches coalition agreement with SPD
- Brent crude falls 8.4% amidst record US oil production
- Bank of England upgrades UK 2018 GDP forecast
Weekly Digest – 5 February 2018
- Brent crude fell 3% to $68 a barrel
- Gold was down 1.4%, standing at 1335
- Global equity indices slump in biggest sell off since 2016
- Bitcoin drops below $8000, a 60% drop in under 2 mths