- Recession risks fade as global triggers stabilise
- Hopes of US/China ‘phase one’ trade deal dashed
- Brent crude gained 0.1% ending the week at $63.4 a barrel
- Gold fell 0.3 % ending the week at $1462.7 an ounce
Imperium Capital Publication
Weekly Digest – 18 November 2019
- Germany managed to avoid a technical recession in Q3 with a GDP growth reading of 0.1%
- The large-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached record highs over the past week
- Brent crude rose 1.3% to $63.3 a barrel
- Gold rose 0.4% to $1467.7 an ounce
Viewpoint – November 2019
Risk assets made further progress in October, with equities leading the way. Wall Street gained 2.1% and reached a new all-time high, but, as in September, the best returns came outside the US: Japan was up by 5%, Asia ex-Japan by 4.5% and emerging markets by 4.2%. Among the major markets, only the UK was down (-2.1%) as a strong rally in sterling put pressure on the big overseas earners, which dominate the UK stock market. The improved appetite for risk was reflected in bond markets, with safe-haven government bonds flat or down while credit markets produced positive returns, led by US corporate bonds up 0.6%.
Weekly Digest – 11 November 2019
- The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third time in four months
- Flows into European stocks outpaced those of US equities over the week
- Brent crude fell 0.5% to $61.7 a barrel as inventories rose by 1.22m at the US’s largest storage hub
- Gold rose 0.4% to $1509.2 an ounce
Weekly Digest – 04 November 2019
- The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third time in four months
- Flows into European stocks outpaced those of US equities over the week
- Brent crude fell 0.5% to $61.7 a barrel as inventories rose by 1.22m at the US’s largest storage hub
- Gold rose 0.4% to $1509.2 an ounce
Weekly Digest – 28 October 2019
- The European Central Bank announced it would keep their policy rate unchanged
- The IMF forecasted China’s economic growth down to 5.8% for 2020, from 2019’s figure of 6.1%
- Brent crude rose 4.4% to $62.0 a barrel, as inventories unexpectedly dropped
- Gold rose 0.7% to $1502.7 an ounce
Weekly Digest – 21 October 2019
- A lacklustre week saw most markets post modest gains
- Brent crude fell -1.8% to $59.4 a barrel
- Gold rose 0.5% to $1492.0 an ounce
- Brexit uncertainty rumbles on
Weekly Digest – 14 October 2019
- UK pound sterling rallies as Brexit talks advance
- Benchmark indices rose due to reported progress in the US-China trade war
- Brent crude oil gained 3.7% ending the week at $60.5 a barrel
- Gold fell 1.6% ending the week at $1485.1 an ounce
Viewpoint – October 2019
After the spike in volatility in August, markets returned to a semblance of stability in September, but this masked some big underlying shifts across and within asset classes. Most notable was a sharp reversal early in the month of bond yields, which until then had trended inexorably lower throughout 2019: the yield on 10 year US Treasuries moved from below 1.5% at the beginning of the month to 1.9% within a matter of days. Somewhat more positive economic data and an apparent thawing of trade war rhetoric between the US and China proved to be the trigger for a reversal of some of the big bond moves seen in August, and risk appetite picked up.
Weekly Digest – 7 October 2019
- Most markets saw a third consecutive week of losses
- US employment metrics paint a mixed picture
- Brent crude oil fell 5.7% ending the week at $58.4 a barrel
- Gold rose 0.4% ending the week at $1508.5 an ounce