Viewpoint – March 2022

The benign conditions enjoyed by financial markets in the 18 months since the depths of the pandemic were well and truly shattered in the first quarter of 2022, driven by two powerful shocks, both largely unexpected and each with huge consequences globally: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed’s very sharp hawkish shift in policy. The immediate consequences of the war produced surges in energy prices and further disruptions to key commodity markets and supply chains, adding to the damage inflicted by the pandemic. But away from commodities, there were few markets that could withstand the heightened risk of a significant slowdown in global growth and much higher interest rates than anticipated only a few months earlier.