Imperium Capital Publication

Weekly Digest – 30 September 2019

  • US President Donald Trump currently has an impeachment inquiry ongoing
  • The UK Supreme court ruled that Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament was unlawful
  • Brent crude oil fell 3.7% ending the week at $61.9 a barrel
  • Gold fell 0.1% ending the week at $1502.2 an ounce

Viewpoint – September 2019

The nervousness which had been creeping into markets during July intensified in August, with growing fears of a more broadly based global economic slowdown than the manufacturing contraction evidenced in the past 9 months. Equities fell sharply across the board, with the largest falls in the most economically exposed sectors and financials, the latter suffering from the dramatic shift down in interest rate expectations in recent weeks. In contrast, safe-haven government bond markets rose sharply, taking yields in many cases to new all-time lows. In the same vein, industrial commodity prices fell sharply, with the key iron ore price falling by 24% in the month, whereas precious metals rose; gold was up 7.5% in August, taking its rise this year to 19%, while silver did some catching up with gold, rising 13% in the month, bringing its rise this year in line with gold.

Weekly Digest – 16 September 2019

  • Attacks on oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia cause a rise of as much as 20% in oil after market close.
  • The US-China trade war talks marginally progressed
  • Brent crude returned -2.1% (Friday’s close), ending the week at $60.2 per barrel.
  • Gold fell 1.8% ending the week at $1490.3 an ounce

Viewpoint – August 2019

While most markets extended their gains in July and Wall Street reached new all-time highs, the moves were more muted than in the first half of the year, with some markets falling, notably in Asia, taking the Emerging Markets index down 1.2%. Gains that were made were modest, with the UK the biggest gainer in local currency terms, up 2.1%, but this was driven largely by a sharp fall in sterling which benefits the big listed offshore earners which dominate the UK stock market. Government bonds were generally firm as yields drifted lower while credit markets performed well with investment-grade corporate and high yield bonds each returning 0.6% and emerging market debt 0.8% in the month, taking a year to date returns for all 3 sectors into double digits.