Imperium Capital Publication

Viewpoint – December 2017

In November the global economic backdrop continued to be supportive for markets, with a majority of asset classes posting positive, moderate returns. Developed market equities mostly performed strong, but were led by the US, while emerging markets underperformed for the second time in three months. In fixed income, November was a slightly risk-off month, with high-yield bond indices posting small losses due to credit spreads increasing.

Viewpoint – November 2017

Equity markets continued to rise in October, with several indices hitting all-time highs. The MSCI AC World Index has now risen for twelve consecutive months, taking 12 month returns to 23.2%. Volatility, typically measured by the VIX index, also reached alltime lows. The global economic backdrop remained supportive for equities with the synchronised global recovery continuing, as many economies, irrespective of geography, continue to expand.

The global economic backdrop was particularly beneficial to emerging market equities which continued to outperform developed markets, posting a 3.5% return in US Dollar terms, versus 1.9% for developed markets. Japanese stocks also outperformed, posting a 5.4% return in Yen terms, with investors reacting positively to the re-election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe which should ensure continuation of stimulative policies. US equities rose 2.3% during the month, following better-than-expected GDP growth in Q3 of 3.0% annualised versus a 2.5% consensus, robust earnings data and unemployment falling to 4.2%. Given the backdrop of low inflation and the disruption from Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, the US economy and equity markets remained resilient.

Weekly Digest – 29 October 2017

  • US equities hit record highs
  • The European Central Bank announces QE taper plans
  • UK and US GDP growth beats expectations
  • US House of Representatives votes in favour of 2018 budget
  • German business sentiment hits record high
  • Brent crude oil prices rose 4.7% during the week