Imperium Capital Publication

Viewpoint – July 2017

The changes in tone from central banks drove global financial markets in June. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank appear unlikely to follow the path of the Federal Reserve in hiking rates this year. Political uncertainties in the UK grew in June following the Conservative party failing to achieve a majority just weeks before the beginning of already uncertain Brexit negotiations. In addition, questions linger over US economic policy and the ability to implement legislation.

Economic prospects in the Euro Area appear to be improving with GDP growth up to 2% this year, although inflation remains below target. The US has continued to grow, with an annual GDP growth rate of around 2%, whilst the UK has outperformed post-Brexit expectations, albeit with signs of a slowdown ahead. Emerging markets have benefitted from loose global monetary policy conditions and accelerating growth. In turn this has benefitted corporate profits, with earnings rising above the stagnant conditions of the past 2 years, up over 10% year-to-date in the US, and beyond this in Europe and Japan.

Weekly Digest – 23 July 2017

  • US equities advance to all-time highs
  • Bank of Japan revises inflation target deadline
  • Euro surges 1.8% versus US Dollar, spurred by ECB meeting
  • US Healthcare reforms quashed by lack of congressional support
  • US Press Secretary Sean Spicer resigns

Weekly Digest – 16 July 2017

  • Oil prices rose 4.7% on the week with Brent standing at USD49 a barrel
  • Gold rose 1.4% to 1228.5
  • MSCI All-Country World Index set an all-time high for the week closing at 473.78
  • More evidence of strength in the global jobs market

 

Weekly Digest – 9 July 2017

  • Oil prices declined just over 2.5% last week
  • Drop in global government bonds accelerated
  • G20 summit shows the divide between the US and others
  • UN security council hold an emergency session in response to North Korea
  • Global stocks jumped and are still at near record high

 

Weekly Digest – 2 July 2017

  • Oil prices climb around 5% last week
  • Volatility makes a comeback moving to 10.9 on the VIX index
  • Global equities trading near record highs
  • Technology stocks under pressure with continued sell offs
  • Central banks adopt a hawkish tone¬† around fiscal tightening