Imperium Capital Publication

Weekly Digest – 01 July 2019

  • US and China agreed to restart trade talks during the G20 summit
  • The current US economic expansion is now the longest on record
  • Brent crude gained 2.1%, ending the week at $66.6 per barrel
  • Gold prices rose 1.1%, ending the week at $1409.6 per ounce

Weekly Digest – 24 June 2019

  • Dovish tilt by global major central banks led by the US Federal Reserve
  • Tensions rose between the US and Iran, resulting in a rally in global oil prices
  • Brent Crude rallied 5.1%, ending the week at $65.2 per barrel
  • Gold prices gained 3.5%, ending the week at $1394.3 per ounce

Viewpoint – June 2019

To say we are living through extraordinary times is beyond dispute. The current economic expansion in the US is soon set to become the longest in history, employment growth in the US and elsewhere has been very strong, monetary policy across the developed world remains ultra-loose by any historical standard and yet inflation is still remarkably subdued. Indeed, recent falls in core inflation measures especially in the US have rattled investors and raised fears of weaker growth and tougher conditions for the corporate sector ahead, and in Europe and Japan of prolonged deflation. US inflation as measured by core PCE deflator has fallen to 1.6%, well below the Fed’s target of 2%, which has hardly been breached throughout the post crisis decade.

Weekly Digest – 17 June 2019

  • Global equity markets were relatively flat on the week
  • The US reached an agreement with Mexico to avoid tariffs
  • Brent crude fell 2.0%, ending the week at $62.0 per barrel
  • Gold prices remained relatively flat, up 0.3%, ending the week at $1347.2 per ounce

Viewpoint – May 2019

The extraordinary start to 2019 for global financial markets continued into April, with strong rises in most risk assets, led by equities, which have enjoyed their best start to a year in decades. All the major equity markets produced solid positive returns with developed equities again outperforming emerging markets, returning 3.5% versus 2.1%. US equities returned 4% in US dollar terms and hit another record high late in the month. The strong performance in the US was however exceeded by Europe, advancing 4.3% in euro terms, buoyed by signs that the sharp slowdown in growth across the eurozone was stabilising. Japan again underperformed, up 1.7% in April and 9.5% year-to-date, the latter making up half of the returns of the US (18%) and Europe (17.2%). Japan has been held back by slower growth this year, below 1% per annum, hurt by the slowdown in China and softness in global growth. The market’s underperformance leaves it attractively valued relative to other developed markets. China was the only market of note which slipped in April, however, this has followed a very strong first quarter performance, returning close to 30%.

Weekly Digest – 13 May 2019

  • US increased tariffs on China, escalating trade tensions
  • Stocks slide as trade fears dampen risk appetite
  • Brent crude fell 0.3%, ending the week at $70.6 per barrel
  • Gold ended the week 0.5% higher at $1288 per ounce