Publications -

Viewpoint – December 2016

A year that witnessed political power ebb away from centrist politics and towards fringe populism and nationalistic ideologies culminated in the election of Donald Trump – the Republican Party’s far-right, nationalistic, anti-trade and immigration, property mogul nominee. His triumph over Democrat Hilary Clinton, who many saw as the encapsulation of the political establishment, reflected the electorate’s disenchantment with such politicians and the inequality that has resulted from their pro-trade and immigration policies of the past decade.
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Viewpoint – November 2016

Throughout October, all eyes were on the build-up to the US election. Markets broadly followed the ebbs and flows of each candidate’s campaign momentum. As such the announcement that the FBI was to re- open its investigation into then candidate Hillary Clinton’s email account led to a wave of risk adverseness and portfolio hedging throughout global markets. The S&P 500 index lost 1.9% over the month, whilst European stocks lost 1.0%.
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Viewpoint – September 2016

August proved to be a particularly quiet month for markets, with low levels of volatility across equities and bonds, and little by way of significant news flow. Overall the ‘risk on’ environment of July, post the UK Brexit referendum, broadly continued in August: most equity markets rose modestly higher, with emerging markets leading the way and adding 2.5% in the month.
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Viewpoint – August 2016

Fortunately, the Brexit vote proved to be anything but the globally systemic shock that many had predicted. Within weeks most equity markets had recovered all and more of their immediate post-referendum falls as it became clear that the only lasting impact on markets globally was to delay any prospect of monetary tightening into the long distant future.
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Viewpoint – July 2016

Events in June, prior to the UK’s EU referendum on the 23rd, became somewhat irrelevant following the shock result. The market reaction was instant and dramatic, with sharp falls in sterling, global stock markets, government bond yields (especially those in the UK) and a flight to safe haven assets such as gold.
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Viewpoint – June 2016

By far the most significant development in the month was the change in expectations for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in 2016. During May the probability of a rate rise for the June and July meetings increased from 12.0% and 26.1% at the start of the month to 24.0% and 52.9% at month end.
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Viewpoint – April 2016

The recovery in markets, which started in February, continued into March and by month end many equity markets had recovered much of the ground lost in the big sell-off at the start of the year. A rally of 12.6% in the MSCI World index from the February lows to the end of March left the year-to-date return at -0.3%.
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